Nigeria’s new president is expected to nominate a new vice president in the coming week. That person could quickly become the frontrunner for next year’s presidential election under an informal power-sharing deal.

President Goodluck Jonathan’s choice as deputy may show what he is thinking about next year’s vote.

Mr. Jonathan is from southern Nigeria and is expected to nominate a northern politician to maintain the country’s regional balance of power. Northern and southern leaders have an informal arrangement that rotates the presidency every two terms.

Because Mr. Jonathan is filling out the end of the first term of the late northern president Umaru Yar’Adua, that arrangement would preclude him from running for president himself. But there is no constitutional provision stopping him, and he has not ruled out doing so.

So if Mr. Jonathan chooses a strong northern vice president, he will be seen as abiding by that arrangement because that deputy would then become the ruling party’s frontrunner. But if Mr. Jonathan chooses a weaker northern vice president, many here will see that as evidence that he is considering his own run for the presidency.

Among those in the group of stronger choices are Senate President David Mark, National Security Advisor Aliyu Gusau and the man who currently holds Nigeria’s third-most powerful post: Secretary to the Government of the Federation Mamud Ahmed Yayale.

President Jonathan has already started meeting with with former heads of state, governors, and ruling party leaders to discuss the vice presidential post.